Memo: Civil War Most In Iraq Most Likely Outcome

Iraq civil war warning for Blair Mr [William] Patey wrote: "The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy. "Even the lowered expectation of President Bush for Iraq - a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror - must remain in doubt." I want to make a few things clear here. 1) I was against this nightmare in the first place. While Saddam was obviously a problem child, he was hardly an imminant issue, and there were better ways to handle him. 2) I also believe that the American people were the victims of lies told by this administration as pretext for a masturbatory war. 3)The American soldier has been used as little more than a tool by politicians who didn't let officers get the job done. IMHO, the government should point the armed forces like a gun, give them a target/objective/whatever, and then let them do the job they were trained for. ANything else is like me advising a surgeon. 4) I also believe that we are not stuck in this conflict. I sympathize with those who want us to pull troops out, but its far too late for that. We can't go into a country, destroy its operational infrastructure, and then leave them in the middle of an insurgency. You think things are bad in the middle east now? Just wait and see what happens if we pull out now. My advice? See #3 above. However, Mr. Patey is rather more of an expert on this topic than I am. While he doesn't feel that civil war is inevitable, he does feel it the most likely outcome and we should start considering how this might be handled. The U.S. COULD come out looking good in that situation if we were able to broker peace between the two sides. People might even forget that we started the war in the first place. My guess is that there will be much lip service from the White House. I won't get cynical and suggest that some sort of backing will be sent to whichever side we feel will be the most helpful towards our interests... Tags:iraq leaked memo William Patey